Rojas, O., Rodriguez, J. E., de la Puente, J., Callaghan, S., Abril, C., Halldorsson, B., Li, B., Gabriel, A. A., and Olsen, K.: Towards physics-based PSHA using CyberShake in the South Iceland Seismic Zone, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7880, 2021.
Type of publication
Year of publication
EGU General Assembly 2021
Traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) estimates the level of earthquake ground shaking that is expected to be exceeded with a given recurrence time on the basis of historical earthquake catalogues and empirical and time-independent Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). The smooth nature of GMPEs usually disregards some well known drivers of ground motion characteristics associated with fault rupture processes, in particular in the near-fault region, complex source-site propagation of seismic waves, and sedimentary basin response. Modern physics-based earthquake simulations can consider all these effects, but require a large set of input parameters for which constraints may often be scarce. However, with the aid of high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructures the parameter space may be sampled in an efficient and scalable manner allowing for a large suite of site-specific ground motion simulations that approach the center, body and range of expected ground motions.