ChEESE conducts two table-top exercises to test short-term volcanic hazard assessment and tsunami urgent computing
03 November 2021

ChEESE partners from Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) will run two exercises this week in relation to the project´s work on hazard from volcanic tephra and tsunamis.

On 4 November 2021, a table-top exercise will be conducted in which the occurrence of an earthquake swarm in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), replicating the real swarm occurred in April 2020, will be simulated.

INGV-Osservatorio Vesuviano will issue a bulletin with the latest (simulated) data from the monitoring system of Campi Flegrei. An ensemble of tephra dispersal simulations will be carried out by ChEESE flagship code FALL3D by the PD6 (Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment) team on the MareNostrum 4 supercomputer at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Their output will feed PD6 workflow to evaluate the short-term hazard for tephra fallout at the ground on a large-scale and high-resolution (2km x 2km) domain covering the Italian territory.

This exercise will show the potentiality of High-Performance Computing for Probabilistic Hazard Forecasting. In particular, the possibility to run tephra fallout models in rapid times on a large-scale and high-resolution domain enables large-scale assessment of the potential impact of low-probability but high-consequent events, posing a significant hazard at distal key sites such as ports or airports, and critical infrastructures, such as lifelines, railways and highways. For these reasons, the end-users that will be targeted in this exercise are PLINIVS (a centre of competence of the Italian Civil Protection, in charge of evaluating the impact of some hazardous events such as tephra ground accumulation) and ARISTOTLE/ERCC.

On 5 November 2021, on the occasion of the World Tsunami Awareness Day organised by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), ChEESE will conduct a table-top exercise to replay the destructive event which occurred almost one year ago from today: the 2020 Mw 7 Samos earthquake, which caused building collapses and about 100 victims at Izmir, and a moderate tsunami which hit the close-by island of Samos to the South and the coast of Turkey to the North, causing one victim.

The Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) that issued alert messages for this tsunami in 2020 will participate in the exercise, which will be conducted between 9:00-13:30 CET.

The urgent computing will be performed live on the CINECA Marconi100 supercomputer. An ensemble of tsunami simulations will be run to evaluate the Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF). The potentiality and applicability of the PTF for early-warning operations will also be discussed among the NEAMTWS TSPs.

The exercise will show the potentiality of High-Performance Computing for Probabilistic Hazard Forecasting, and in particular of Urgent Computing for Rapid Post Event Assessment. Then, it mostly targets ARISTOTLE/ERCC purposes.

Participants of this exercise include NEAMTWS Tsunami Service Providers NOA, KOERI, CAT-INGV; the ARISTOTLE Tsunami Hazard Group; National and European Civil Protection representatives; EPOS representatives.